Getting a Kick Out of Brandon Aubrey

In what was expected to be the year of the kickoff, not kicker (new dynamic kickoffs be damned), field goal kickers are having their best season ever, especially from long range. 

In Week 1, kickers made 21 of 23 (91%) from 50+ yards - an NFL record for a single week. Through Week 3, kickers have made 42 of 55 field goal attempts from 50+ yards. If that 76.4% make rate holds through January, it will shatter last season’s mark of 68.7%. 

We have plenty of season left. The 224 remaining games will increase the current sample size and bring harsher kicking elements come winter, but it’s safe to say that kickers have evolved. 

Amongst the kicking elite’s pride, one beast has taken over as king - Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey. 

Aubrey, merely an NFL sophomore, has supplanted the likes of Justin Tucker and Harrison Butker as the league’s longest leg. 

In his rookie season, Aubrey was 10 of 10 from 50+ yard range - including a game with two 55+ yarders. He was 36 of 38 in total, a perfect 35 of 35 going into his final game. 

But this article isn’t about Aubrey’s recent past, it’s about his near future. It’s about how he might catalyze something the NFL has never seen before. 

During this past Sunday’s Ravens-Cowboys game, Aubrey made a 65 yard field goal. Officially the second longest in NFL history, the conversion was an incredible feat for a second year player whose ascent to dominate his position is one of the hastiest ever.

While most fans and media commented on this kick mainly for its length, the reasons behind this kick’s impressiveness deserve a deeper dive. 

Aubrey’s kick is in a tier of its own and not because it was the first ever 65 yarder, adding another number to “kickagami” (Scorigami for kicking, something I made up). Rather the kick’s significance derives from the time it occurred during the game. 

In a century of NFL history, there have been 189 field goals attempts from 60+ yards and only 39 converted. This low conversion (21%) is one of the contributing factors that these kicks aren’t attempted often. 

Aside from the perfect symbiosis of a kicker’s strength and accuracy to carry the ball end-over-end through variable wind conditions, coaches’ are concerned more with when to attempt the lengthy try than where.

If the kicker misses a field goal attempt, then the opposition takes over where the conjunction of the placeholder’s spot and the kicker’s contact took place. For any miss exactly 60 yards, the opposition would start their ensuing drive from the midfield line. For any miss 61 yards and over, the opposition would start in enemy territory*.

Even if you have a strong kicker, the low probability of 3 points might not be worth giving the opponent advantageous field position to begin their drive. 

This is why almost everyone of these 60+ yard field goals have been attempted in situations where the opposition can’t get the ball back.

I call these instances “low risk, high reward” because the only risk run is a blocked kick returned for a touchdown and the high reward is stealing three points. These instances pertain to clock expiration where a) either the kick comes as the final snap of the first half or b) the kick is absolutely necessary for a tie or win in the waning seconds of the game. 

Of those 39 field goals of 60+ yards (see Figure 1 below for extensive list), 34 have come in those “low risk, high reward” situations. 12 were made in a do-or-die situation with the game on the line and 22 were made in the less pressure “bonus points” situation at the end of the first half. 

This strategy to wait for time to expire has superseded even the most talented of kickers.

For example, Justin Tucker - this generation’s best kicker and record holder for longest field goal - has attempted only 9 field goals over 60 yards. All of his attempts, including 7 misses, were with the clock winding down - either at half or full time. 

Essentially all of these 34 “low risk, high reward”ers were buzzer beaters. Though the earliest game winner was with 36 seconds remaining (Dan Carpenter, Dolphins) and the earliest game tyer was with 1:55 remaining (Will Lutz, Saints), both kicks were the team’s last chance to stave off losing. 

Enough about the “low risk, high reward” 60+ yarders....what about the converse “high risk, low reward” ones?

These are field goals attempted during the meat of the game when you wouldn’t bat an eye for a 30 yard, 40 yard, or perhaps even 50 yard attempt.

And as such, there have been five 60+ yarders converted in these situations. 

First, we’ll talk about Arizona K Chandler Catanzaro. In 2016, the Cardinals trailed the Bills 30-13 with 10:40 left in the 4th. Catanzaro’s 60 yard attempt wasn’t too risky considering the Cardinals had nothing to lose. Either he turned the game into a two score difference or if he missed it, the game was already in the books. The kick was good.

The second instance involves Rams (St. Louis) K Greg Zuerlien. “Greg the Leg” is a three time member of the 60 yarder club and there was no better vote of confidence in his prodigious limb than against the Vikings in 2012, down 10-6 with 11:00 left in the 2nd.

Up until this point in NFL history, there had never been an attempt this long with such field position ramifications. It was still early in the game and making this field goal would cut a one score deficit into…..wait for it…. a one score deficit.

But that’s Rams HC Jeff Fisher for you, rolling the dice and taking chances when common sense says otherwise. Zuerlien, who’d six years later would make the longest game winning kick in postseason history (57 yards), took advantage of a prevailing tailwind and knocked it through the uprights. 

For several years, Catanzaro and Zuerlien stood alone, isolated in the realm of field goal ballsiness, until the rise of our main man, Brandon Aubrey. 

Aubrey is responsible for the other kicks in the “high risk, low reward” category. 

He initially did so last season against the Eagles on Sunday Night Football. With :55 left in the 1st and Dallas up seven, a 60 yard miss would have put the division rival exactly at midfield, needing just a touchdown to even the score.

Yet the former MLS kicker nicknamed “Butter” astounded the national audience by bombing a kick right down the center 1-800-Collect style. (Later that game, Aubrey added a 59 yarder. Light work.). 

But now, Aubrey has his magnum opus, the 65 yarder heard round the world. A miss would have started reigning MVP Lamar Jackson’s Ravens at the Cowboys 45, needing just 10 yards for a field goal of the aforementioned living legend Tucker.

Whereas these three other conversions during the heart of the game were all exactly 60 yards, Aubrey just provided an outlier in this bracket- a make of an extra 5 yards. 

The phrase “game changer” gets tossed around a bit too much for my liking. It’s too casually referred to a really good player or and MVP type candidate.

A true game changer is a generational star who transcends his team, league, and perhaps the sport. He changes scripts about strategy, gameplay, and even rules. 

Sometimes recent game changers come in the form of teams.

I think about the mid-2000s Mike D’antoni coached Phoenix Suns with their “7 seconds or less” offense. By turning defensive rebounds into half court passes, fast break layups, and pull-up three pointers, the Suns up-tempo offense prevented defenses from getting set leading to exhaustion. These Suns led the NBA in points for 5 out of 6 seasons. 

Baseball’s low-salary Tampa Bay Rays needed to find a pitching edge against higher powered lineups. In 2018, they initiated the Opener, a relief pitcher who would pitch the first inning to face the opposition’s best batters, thereafter giving way to their starter. Before this change, the Rays hadn’t made the postseason in its previous five years, but would make the postseason in their ensuing five years.

Most recently, the Philadelphia Eagles’ use of Tush Push changed the way we think about criteria for moving the chains. For every other NFL team, a first down requires three plays of ten yards before surrendering a punt;  For the Eagles, their 93% success rate on the Tush Push put defenses on edge, knowing they were up against nine yards for an inevitable 4th and 1 conversion. 

While these advantages are associated with the name on the front of the jersey, they ultimately cannot be executed without the names on the back. The Suns don’t run their offense without the quickness and vision of point guard Steve Nash and the Eagles don’t run their Tush Push without the league’s strongest quarterback Jalen Hurts (time will tell if it will succeed without retired Center Jason Kelce). 

Perhaps now it’s the Cowboys turn to utilize their game changer Aubrey. With his 65 yarder in the first quarter, Dallas coach Mike McCarthy may continue to attempt 3 point tries instead of punting. This shortens the Cowboys field, meaning that they can take more risks downfield or experiment with different play calls - knowing that the offense may need fewer yards to put points on the board. 

During his color commentary of the Cowboys game, Tom Brady aptly compared Aubrey to Steph Curry. He was alluding not just to the “range” from which both Aubrey and Curry convert their field goals (coincidentally, also the correct verbiage for a basketball shot), but also how these attempt from long range messes with the opposing defense.

When Curry pulls up at 35 feet to drain a rainmaker, the player guarding him is in a quandary since he’s risking Curry driving by him, leaving additional space to pull up for a closer shot or giving Golden State a 5-on-4 advantage. 

If Aubrey can be reliable from 65 yards, then the Cowboys have a player that can transcend his position and become the greatest kicking weapon in history.

While this article was finished Thursday afternoon, hours later on Thursday Night Football Aubrey did it again, kicking a 60 yard field goal with 5:11 left in the 3rd quarter. The Cowboys were only up 2 and if Aubrey missed, the Giants would be at midfield in prime position to take the lead on a field goal. Of course, Aubrey didn’t miss.

The first and only kicker to win an NFL MVP was Mark Moseley in 1982. If Aubrey continues to convert frequent kicks in the 60 yard range - a stat that players cards, reference pages, and fantasy point breakdowns don’t even account for - then he might become the second. 

* A field goal’s length can be totaled by adding 17 or 18 yards to the line of scrimmage. The 17 or 18 comes from the kicker connecting with the ball 7 or 8 yards behind the line of scrimmage and then add the 10 yards for the distance between the endzone plane and the goalpost.